LATEST UPDATE ON HURRICANE ANA (AS OF 5A.M. FRIDAY)
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is indicating that the intensity forecast is quite tricky with this storm. Sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient to fuel ANA and vertical wind shear is expected to decrease so further intensification is the likely result of that. However, some models are still indicating that ANA will not become a hurricane. The current intensity forecast takes all models into account. Gradual intensification is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours
The current track has not changed much with ANA passing 75 miles south and west of the island of Hawaiʻi Friday night and Saturday, passing Maui County Saturday into Sunday and nearing Oʻahu and Kauaʻi over the weekend and into Monday.
The probability of tropical storm conditions over Big Island leeward and southeast coastal waters is 71%; 36% in Hilo; 51% in Kailua-Kona and 62% near South Point.
Remember, these systems are notoriously difficult to predict and the center of the storm has a 66% chance of landing anywhere within the cone of uncertainty. The margin of error going out 48 hours is still a whopping 80 miles. Even small shifts in the track can mean major differences in where the worst conditions will occur. Damaging effects can extend far from the center so it’s important that residents prepare just in case.
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